Conservation Authority lands keynote scientist at AGM
by Michelle Minnoch

"We are causing the climate to warm."

Dr. W. Richard Peltier, Director for the Centre for Global Science Change, University of Toronto, was the keynote speaker at the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority's Annual General Meeting on Friday. CAO Gayle Wood said the Authority was honoured to have Peltier address the Authority, as he is the fifth most highly sought scientist in the world, according to Science magazine.

Peltier said for the past 150 years, since the onset of industrialization is when things started to change.

"Today, our level of CO2 is at 383 parts per million volume (PPMV)," he said. "In 1850, we were at 280 ppmv, and it had sat at that level for thousands of years."

Peltier said since the onset of industrialization, green house gas concentrations in the atmosphere has increased at an unprecedented rate. "This has just occurred in the past 150 years."

He said in 1998, an El Nino year, the earth's surface temperature was measured, as it was last year, another El Nino year. Peltier said the temperature of the earth's surface broke the record last year. He said the last 11 years are the warmest years on record.

Comparing data from 2001 to 2005, with that from 1950 to 1980, he said the effect of climate change is predominant in the northern hemisphere. The southern portion of the polar ice cap is peeling back, closer to the pole, and he said the Arctic Ocean could be completely ice free by 2050. This, he said, will have a huge impact on Canadian sovereignty and commerce. He said the sea ice cover in the southern hemisphere has absolutely nothing happening to it at all.

"The northern hemisphere is greatly affected. The melting of Greenland ice is increasing at an alarming rate. Greenland is losing net mass." With four years of GRACE data (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), from 2002 - 2006, he said the melting of Greenland is accelerating. (GRACE twin satellites were launched in 2002, and they make detailed measurements of the earth's gravity fields, which enable scientists to take a more in depth look at the effects of climate change).

He said 120,000 years ago, the temperature of the polar ice cap was the same state as it is in now, but four metres of a sea level rise will have a huge impact.

"People will be driven to become environmental refugees in the next 10 to 20 years." It is the people living in low land mass areas, such as Florida, Bangladesh and New York which he says will suffer. "We are talking about significant destruction."

With satellites sending pulses to the sea, and then receiving the information back, Peltier said scientists know exactly when and where the sea levels are increasing and decreasing. The satellite data provides the rate of the sea level rise, the amount of CO2, and the rate in which the ice caps are peeling back.

Peltier was one of the lead authors in the Fourth Scientific Assessment report on Climate Change, which was recently released in Paris in February by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

"We cannot do anything to affect anything that is going to happen in the next 20 years," he said. Peltier said changes have to be made now, and the results will be seen decades down the road.

"The decisions we make today will make all the difference. The decisions our government makes will determine the path we follow."

Peltier said the Canadian Government should continue to endorse the Kyoto Accord. "We have always lived up to our international commitments," he said. Peltier stated Kyoto is about cap and trade with other countries. "The idea is that when we're above our caps, we should buy space from other countries." (Cap and Trade refers to a financial incentive for emission reductions with a cost assigned to polluting. A 'cap' is set to limit the amount of emissions given to a designated group, i.e. a power plant. The allowed emissions are divided into individual permits, representing the emission amount allowed. Companies can buy and trade permits so they can continue their operations).

Peltier said Canadian corporations are resistant to change because the legislation the government has put forth is not innovative.

"The government is working against the environment and innovation. The government has to make a decision to help us help the environment."

Peltier said we have to let the government know what we want.